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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(:11) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to CIN 36, Center-61-B.Goode. 22-W.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 36, RECOVERED by GB-24-Q.Rollins at CIN 33. 24-Q.Rollins to CIN 33 for no gain (22-W.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 45, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model