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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 86

Green Bay Packers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to CIN 33, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to GB 47 for 20 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model