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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to CIN 9, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP