Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(2:25) 8-J.Vogel punts 27 yards to CIN 40, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model