Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(13:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to IND 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model