Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- IND defense: -0.005 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.146 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.259 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
CLE
IND
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:29 TD IND (:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – IND 6
- Q2 13:32 TD CLE (13:32) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – IND 7
- Q2 10:15 TD IND (10:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 13
- Q2 05:27 TD IND (5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 20
- Q2 02:46 TD IND (2:46) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 27
- Q2 00:32 TD CLE (:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – IND 28
- Q4 10:23 FG IND (10:23) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. CLE 14 – IND 31
- Q4 07:04 TD CLE (7:04) (Run formation) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Simon]. Penalty on IND-30-R.Melvin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 20 – IND 31
- Q4 02:08 TD CLE (2:08) (Pass formation) 7-D.Kizer left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – IND 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to IND 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(10:48) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 20 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(7:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 26 for 8 yards (50-B.Bello).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 60%
(5:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%
(7:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to IND 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-M.Jordan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 40 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CLE-52-J.Burgess, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 40.
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Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-J.Peppers ran ob at CLE 27 for no gain. PENALTY on IND-42-K.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 27.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to IND 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for -5 yards (50-B.Bello).
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Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%
(10:23) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to IND 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
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Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:56) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 47 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%
(4:14) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. PENALTY on IND-59-J.George, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%
(:29) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
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