Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 40 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CLE-52-J.Burgess, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model