Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Cleveland Browns 14

(5:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.54 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model