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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 14 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to IND 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for -5 yards (50-B.Bello).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model