Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 14 – Indianapolis Colts 31

(9:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to IND 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model