Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Cleveland Browns 14

(8:56) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.83 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model