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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(:29) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP