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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.14 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP