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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model