Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- LAC defense: +0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:09 TD KC (12:09) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 0
- Q1 05:37 TD KC (5:37) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 12-A.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – LAC 0
- Q1 00:12 TD LAC (:12) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – LAC 6
- Q2 04:35 FG KC (4:35) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – LAC 7
- Q2 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 9-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. KC 17 – LAC 10
- Q4 02:00 TD KC (2:00) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LAC 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 KC 4th & 18 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to LAC 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 14 for 9 yards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%
(4:35) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(:03) 9-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%
(7:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:44) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LAC 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 61Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 30%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right end to KC 35 for -4 yards (40-C.McCain).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%
(13:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 34 yards to KC 6, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-M.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 25 for 3 yards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to KC 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 1 yard (51-K.Emanuel).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 61%
(5:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
See the full breakdown →
