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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

KC
53.4%
LAC
46.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.027 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
LAC 23
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Foot
Parker Ehinger G Doubtful Knee

LAC

Jason Verrett CB Out Knee
Mike Williams WR Out Back
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Knee
Hayes Pullard LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 24
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD KC (12:09) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 05:37 TD KC (5:37) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 12-A.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – LAC 0
  • Q1 00:12 TD LAC (:12) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – LAC 6
  • Q2 04:35 FG KC (4:35) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – LAC 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 9-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. KC 17 – LAC 10
  • Q4 02:00 TD KC (2:00) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 KC 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to LAC 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 14 for 9 yards.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (4:35) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 9-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (7:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:44) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LAC 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right end to KC 35 for -4 yards (40-C.McCain).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%

    (13:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 34 yards to KC 6, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-M.Davis.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 25 for 3 yards.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to KC 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 1 yard (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.