Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(5:44) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LAC 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model