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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 34 yards to KC 6, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-M.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model