Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

(4:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 31 for 12 yards (18-D.Byrd).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model