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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NO
53.7%
CAR
46.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.137 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.064 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.137 EPA/dropback
  • NO defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Shoulder
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Concussion
Sterling Moore CB Out Chest
Zach Strief T Out Knee
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Knee

CAR

Jeremy Cash LB Out Calf
Ryan Kalil C Out Neck
Cam Newton QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
CAR 13

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:23 FG CAR (6:23) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 00:29 TD NO (:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NO 6 – CAR 3
  • Q2 10:52 FG CAR (10:52) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 7 – CAR 6
  • Q2 05:48 TD NO (5:48) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 16-B.Coleman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – CAR 6
  • Q3 11:18 TD NO (11:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-K.Love]. NO 23 – CAR 6
  • Q3 01:26 TD CAR (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – CAR 12
  • Q4 12:03 FG NO (12:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 27 – CAR 13
  • Q4 04:50 TD NO (4:50) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 33 – CAR 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (6:23) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (10:52) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (9:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 31 for 12 yards (18-D.Byrd).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (7:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 17 for 3 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (12:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%

    (9:02) 3-W.Lutz 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 21 for 9 yards (52-C.Robertson).