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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 24 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model