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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 27 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-W.Lutz 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP