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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 13 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model