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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 34 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 21 for 9 yards (52-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -0.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP