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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model