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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model