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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIN 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model