4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -0.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TB
55.4%
MIN
44.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Case Keenum (MIN) -0.073 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.189 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

TB

Kwon Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Chris Baker DT Doubtful Illness
Jacquies Smith DE Doubtful Illness
Kevin Pamphile G Questionable Illness
Devante Bond LB Questionable Knee
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Ankle
Brent Grimes CB Questionable Shoulder

MIN

Sam Bradford QB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 17
–
MIN 34

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:01 TD MIN (11:01) (Run formation) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:22 FG TB (6:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – MIN 7
  • Q2 10:29 TD MIN (10:29) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-J.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – MIN 13
  • Q2 00:53 TD MIN (:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – MIN 20
  • Q3 12:36 TD MIN (12:36) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. TB 3 – MIN 27
  • Q3 08:52 TD TB (8:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – MIN 28
  • Q3 02:26 FG MIN (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TB 10 – MIN 31
  • Q3 00:01 TD TB (:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – MIN 31
  • Q4 08:44 FG MIN (8:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TB 17 – MIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (6:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to TB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to MIN 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIN 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 19 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (5:44) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to TB 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to MIN 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:37) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to MIN 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:41) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 33 yards to TB 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (8:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.