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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to TB 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model