4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to MIN 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -1.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model