4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 33 yards to TB 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model