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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model