4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP