4th & Data
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
25.7%
ATL
74.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.325 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
ATL 29
Projected margin: ATL by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BUF

Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Groin

ATL

Ricardo Allen S Out Concussion
Vic Beasley LB Out Hamstring
Ryan Schraeder T Out Concussion
Courtney Upshaw DE Out Ankle
Terron Ward RB Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 23
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:35 FG ATL (10:35) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. BUF 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 06:57 TD BUF (6:57) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 87-J.Matthews for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:21 TD ATL (:21) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – ATL 9
  • Q3 11:04 TD BUF (11:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 39 for -8 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], RECOVERED by BUF-27-T.White at BUF 48. 27-T.White for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-24-D.Freeman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 13 – ATL 10
  • Q4 12:03 FG BUF (12:03) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 17 – ATL 10
  • Q4 07:04 TD ATL (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-J.Hardy for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – ATL 16
  • Q4 04:48 FG BUF (4:48) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 20 – ATL 17
  • Q4 03:10 FG BUF (3:10) 4-S.Hauschka 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 23 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 38%

    (11:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to BUF 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%

    (5:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 31%

    (:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (14-J.Webb; 29-R.Blanton).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (10:35) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to ATL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 32 for -3 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on ATL-50-B.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on ATL-85-E.Saubert, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:18) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to ATL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-20-S.Neasman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 30.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (12:03) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 61%

    (4:48) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 63%

    (3:10) 4-S.Hauschka 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-N.Williams to ATL 39 for 8 yards (20-S.Wright).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (:49) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Gabriel.