Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to ATL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 32 for -3 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on ATL-50-B.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on ATL-85-E.Saubert, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.04 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model