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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 4-S.Hauschka 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model