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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(:49) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Gabriel.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.81 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model