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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.33 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP