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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model