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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 17

New England Patriots 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model