4th & Data
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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
19.3%
NE
80.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.222 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.107 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

Jeremy Cash LB Out Calf
Daeshon Hall DE Out Knee
Ryan Kalil C Out Neck
Curtis Samuel WR Out Back
Daryl Worley CB Out Shoulder

NE

Rex Burkhead RB Doubtful Ribs
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Brandon King S Questionable Hamstring
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 33
–
NE 30

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 FG NE (11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. CAR 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 07:45 FG CAR (7:45) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – NE 3
  • Q2 12:43 TD NE (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – NE 9
  • Q2 09:49 TD CAR (9:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 43-F.Whittaker for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – NE 10
  • Q2 04:34 FG NE (4:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. CAR 10 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:31 TD CAR (:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG NE (:04) 3-S.Gostkowski 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Kick good off of right upright. NE 3-Gostkowski longest FG of his career and longest in franchise history. CAR 17 – NE 16
  • Q3 02:51 TD CAR (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 17-D.Funchess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – NE 16
  • Q4 13:03 TD CAR (13:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 1-Newton 50th career rush TD, extends NFL record for rush TD by QB. CAR 29 – NE 16
  • Q4 08:52 TD NE (8:52) 33-D.Lewis left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 30 – NE 22
  • Q4 03:14 TD NE (3:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 30 – NE 29
  • Q4 00:04 FG CAR (:04) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 33 – NE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 86%

    (11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (7:45) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 18 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:35) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 12 yards (46-J.Develin).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (4:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:28) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to CAR 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:57) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 21.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 56%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to CAR 25 for 13 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.