Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 68

New England Patriots 16 – Carolina Panthers 17

(9:28) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to CAR 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model