Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 59

New England Patriots 16 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(:57) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model