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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 5, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model