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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2017-09-28 · 20:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
25.7%
GB
74.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.224 vs Mike Glennon (CHI) -0.110 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CHI

Quintin Demps S Out Forearm
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Doubtful Chest
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Hand
Josh Sitton G Questionable Ribs

GB

Davon House CB Out Quadricep
David Bakhtiari T Doubtful Hamstring
Bryan Bulaga T Doubtful Ankle
Nick Perry LB Questionable Hand
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 14
–
GB 35

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 TD GB (9:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 08:59 TD GB (8:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 04:52 TD GB (4:52) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 20
  • Q2 00:12 TD CHI (:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 13-K.Wright for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 21
  • Q3 04:13 TD GB (4:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 27
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 34
  • Q4 06:06 TD CHI (6:06) 24-Jo.Howard left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – GB 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:33) 8-J.Vogel punts 62 yards to CHI 15, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to GB 20, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 36 for 16 yards (30-B.Cunningham). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 14 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:01) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to CHI 42, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 00:48.)

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 41%

    (11:20) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to GB 5, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 52 yards to CHI 25, Center-59-T.Pepper. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 9 yards (22-A.Ripkowski, 25-M.Evans).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 18, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:54) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to CHI 30, Center-59-T.Pepper. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 28 for -2 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (11:57) 4-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 69%

    (8:47) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at CHI 28 for 5 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (7:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 14-D.Thompson to GB 9 for 9 yards (28-J.Hawkins).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:47) 8-J.Vogel punts 29 yards to CHI 40, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 25%

    (2:00) 24-Jo.Howard right guard to GB 48 for 3 yards (42-M.Burnett).