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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to GB 20, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 36 for 16 yards (30-B.Cunningham). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.35 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model