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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 89

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to CHI 42, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 00:48.)

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 89, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model