Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CLE 32 for 44 yards (52-J.Burgess). PENALTY on CIN-25-G.Bernard, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 32. Penalty on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model