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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CIN
56.3%
CLE
43.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.209 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.033 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Back
Jordan Evans LB Out Hamstring
John Ross WR Out Knee
Derron Smith S Doubtful Ankle
Trey Hopkins G Questionable Knee

CLE

Jamie Collins LB Out Concussion
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Hamstring
Myles Garrett DE Questionable Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Calf
Randall Telfer TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 31
–
CLE 7

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 02:36 TD CIN (2:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 01:21 TD CIN (1:21) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 25-G.Bernard for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-90-E.Ogbah was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. CIN 20 – CLE 0
  • Q3 11:32 FG CIN (11:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 24 – CLE 0
  • Q3 03:42 TD CIN (3:42) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – CLE 0
  • Q4 01:56 TD CLE (1:56) 29-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – CLE 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for 14 yards (40-D.Vitale). CLE-54-D.Alexander was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (11:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (8:50) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-A.Jones to CLE 35 for 40 yards (40-D.Vitale).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CLE 32 for 44 yards (52-J.Burgess). PENALTY on CIN-25-G.Bernard, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 32. Penalty on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (11:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 17 for -1 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 27 for 8 yards (52-J.Burgess).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:19) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers ran ob at CLE 19 for no gain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle [58-C.Lawson].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:10) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 24 for -3 yards (59-N.Vigil).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for 9 yards (53-J.Schobert). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:42) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 37 for 7 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass short right to 80-R.Louis to CIN 40 for 8 yards (20-K.Russell).