Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

(10:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 17 for -1 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model