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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CIN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 27 for 8 yards (52-J.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model